![]() ![]() However, if Lukashenko was to provide a launch pad for mercenary fighters to attack its neighbour this might be seen as an unprovoked escalation and drag Belarus into the war – something he will be keen to avoid. ![]() Kyiv is significantly closer to Belarus than Russia, which would provide a significant logistical advantage to the attacking force. It is possible Putin, having expunged the direct threat posed by Prigozhin, will coerce him into mounting operations against the Ukrainian capital Kyiv from Belarus territory. However, mindful most Belarusians want nothing to do with the war in Ukraine and are likely to be increasingly suspicious of Lukashenko’s developing partnership with Putin, Prigozhin’s activities in Belarus are likely to be relatively low-key, at least in the near term. However, Prigozhin is potentially a very dangerous animal, so Lukashenko will want to proceed with caution.Īlthough Prigozhin is probably grateful for the opportunity afforded him by Lukashenko, he must also be aware Putin has broader ambitions to subjugate Belarus and there is potential Prigozhin could prove a useful asset for Putin when required – perhaps as a way back into the Moscow fold. Under normal circumstances one might have expected Prigozhin’s prospects to be limited, but Vladimir Putin will not want to risk turning him into a martyr, so while the dust settles on last weekend’s events, Lukashenko has provided an invaluable short-term solution. ![]() Following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive “march for justice” towards the Russian capital last weekend, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko intervened and apparently offered the mercenary leader safe sanctuary in exile. ![]()
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